Posts Tagged ‘Economics’

Indonesian Car Market, Days before Pressure

April 26, 2010

Save as much as you can before the rainy day

Honda FCX Clarity one of the brand new hybrid carsThat might be a match sentence for Indonesian Automaker. Forget about the recall crisis, Indonesian car market is not affected by that and (possibly) not sensitive enough with the recall issues, but the distributors need to boost sales as much as they can. Why so? Because the hard days are yet to come.

The causes are:

  1. Progressive Tax Plan
  2. The progressive tax means higher tax will applied for the second car. If the owner buy his second car, the car will have higher tax than the first one, if he buy the third, it has higher tax than the second one and so forth. Conclusion is to prohibit Indonesian to have multiple cars. Good news for crowded Jakarta street, bad news for Automaker. It’s still on debate to be applied in Jakarta, which is the biggest market for automobile in Indonesia.

  3. No Subsidized Gas for New Car
  4. Most (maybe ‘nearly all’) car in Indonesia used the subsidized Octane 88 gasoline. It’s a hidden feature of tax rebate I know, but Indonesia is not an oil land anymore (I will discuss about it more in the next post). Some policy plan has been discussed regarding this problem, and the last one is the car which produced in 2000 and thereafter are not allowed to consume the subsidized gas. It’s still on debate, but the latest news said that Pertamina, the one and only oil company allowed to sell the subsidized gas is booked Rp 456 billion (about US$ 45.6 Million) loss because of the gas. If the rule really applied, good news for Pertamina, bad news for Automaker, as the demand of the new car estimated to be decreased because of this.

  5. Increasing Steel Price
  6. The steel price is reported to be doubled from last year, because of steelmaker increasing operarional cost. This will create a pressure to the price of the new car as they need more pocket to buy the main ingredient. Okay they will charge more to the customer, but remember the demand is contradictionary to the price. Bad news for Automaker bad news for Consumer too.

The last one is slow but sure will make the car price more expensive, the first two? Still on the debate but when those two are really applied, the market will be totally changed. The Automaker must boost car sales as much as they can before running out of time.

Anton Hermansyah

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Nokia Life Tools, Nokia’s Seriousness in Low End Market?

April 8, 2010

Nokia Life ToolsThis morning I watched Nokia Life Tools ad. The ad shows the farmer that helped by the tools because he could know the price of the rice and other agriculture products in the market. The content will be sent via SMS, so no need of expensive HDSPA connection which just available in the big cities only (in Indonesia of course).

So this is Nokia’s attempt to reach the low end market?

Well, in Indonesia the trending topic of Mid-High gadget is full of Blackberry, iPhone and Android. there’s even no small room for Nokia’s Maemo (and Windows Mobile) to be talked.

The Mid Low is the same, there are many Made in China QWERTY Phones which imitate the design of mid high class phone mentioned above (of course lack of feature and high speed connection) in the market.

What Nokia could do?

Aim for the niche one of course, which are the non urban societies. There are several characteristic for this type of society:

  1. Mostly work in Agriculture sector
  2. Prefer to use mobile phone, because the fixed line usually not available in their area, and it’s a waste of time to go to the city just to pay the telephone bill only
  3. Mostly don’t have high speed connection signal

So they do have the mobile phone but not a sophisticated one, the infrastructure is not yet support them for high speed data access. The access via SMS can be more consistent than data, but the problem is how much they should pay?

From this link (in Bahasa), it’s stated that the user should pay about Rp 1,000 per day. I think that’s too expensive, because the price of the data service now is Rp 1 per KB, so with Rp 1,000 you could download about 1 MB data. Well if you say the data and SMS are in a different world, the price of one SMS is Rp 50 per one SMS, with Rp 1,000 you could make 20 SMSs. That means you should access the Life Tool at least 20 times a day for a break even.

Low end everybody?

Anton Hermansyah

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Simulation of Nissan LEAF Operational Cost in Indonesia

April 5, 2010

Nissan LEAFThe earth hero Nissan LEAF will come into production in 2011. I don’t know how much it cost but probably around $30,000 — $40,000. The issues of rising electricity price in Indonesia simply gives me idea to estimate the operational cost of Nissan LEAF here.

First, I look up for the charging specification of LEAF, there are three kind of charge ‘Slow’ which is the standard one, ‘Fast’ which halved the time with double amp, and ‘Quick’ which enables you to charge in less than one hour. In the full capacity, the Lithium Ion battery could run the LEAF for 160 km.

Type Amp Volt Time (Hour) Capacity Range (km)
Slow Charge 100 20 16 100% 160
Fast Charge 220 20 8 100% 160
Quick Charge 440 20 0.42 80% 128

Below is the table of Indonesian electricity cost,based on 2009 price.

Class VA Limit Charge Cost (Rp/kVA/Month) Usage Cost (Rp/kWh)
S-1/TR 220 VA 0 Subscription Cost/Month : 14,800
S-2/TR (1) 450 VA 10 Block I 0 – 30 kWh 123
Block II > 30 kWh – 60 kWh 265
Block III > 60 kWh 360
S-2/TR (2) 900 VA 15 Block I 0 – 20 kWh 200
Block II > 20 kWh – 60 kWh 295
Block III > 60 kWh 360
S-2/TR (3) 1,300 VA 25 Block I 0 -. 20 kWh 250
Block II > 20 kWh – 60 kWh 335
Block III > 60 kWh 405
S-2/TR (4) 2,200 VA 27 Block I 0 – 20 kWh 250
Block II > 20 kWh – 60 kWh 370
Block III > 60 kWh 420
S-2/TR (5) > 2,200 VA to 200 kVA 30.5 Block I 0 – 60 hours on 380
Block II > 60 hours on after 430
S-3/TM > 200 kVA 29.5 Block WBP KxPx325
Block LWBP Px325
R-1/TR (1) Up to 450 VA 11 Block I 0 – 30 kWh 169
Block II > 30 kWh – 60 kWh 360
Block III > 60 kWh 495
R-1/TR (2) 900 VA 20 Block I 0 – 20 kWh 275
Block II > 20 kWh – 60 kWh 445
Block III > 60 kWh 495
R-1/TR (3) 1,300 VA 30.1 Block I 0 – 20 kWh 385
Block II > 20 kWh – 60 kWh 445
Block III > 60 kWh 495
R-1/TR (4) 2,200 VA 30.2 Block I 0 – 20 kWh 390
Block II > 20 kWh – 60 kWh 445
Block III > 60 kWh 495
R-2/TR > 2,200 VA to 6,600 VA 30.4 560
R-3/TR > 6,600 VA 34.26 621

After look at the price of electricity, I match LEAF charging specification with the price. All of the charging types are under S-2 class, but only Slow charge under TR (4) and the rest are TR (5).

Type VA kWh Class Block
Slow Charge 2,000 32 S-2/TR (4) II
Fast Charge 4,400 35.2 S-2/TR (5) I
Quick Charge 8,800 3.67 S-2/TR (5) I

I calculate the total cost based on the charging type and it’s pricing category, then looking for the cost per km, which is the total cost divided by maximum range (see the first table).

Type Charge Cost Usage Cost Total Cost/km (Rp)
Slow Charge 54 11,840 11,894 74.34
Fast Charge 134.2 13,376 13,510.2 84.44
Quick Charge 268.4 1,393.33 1,661.73 12.98

Then I compare with the ordinary gasoline car. I chose Nissan Livina with HR15DE engine, because this car fall under same category based on the body size with LEAF. Assuming Octane 88 price : Rp 4,500/l; Octane 92 : Rp 6,000/l; Octane 95 : Rp 6,200/l

Type Fuel Cons. (km/l) Cost/km (Rp)
Octane 88 Octane 92 Octane 95
City 11 409.09 545.45 563.64
Combination 16 281.25 375 387.5
Highway 21 214.29 285.71 295.24

Then I calculate the percentage of how much Indonesians could save if they use LEAF instead of Livina.

  1. In the City
  2. Slow Fast Quick
    Octane 88 81.83% 79.36% 96.83%
    Octane 92 86.37% 84.52% 97.62%
    Octane 95 86.81% 85.02% 97.70%
  3. In the Combination Route
  4. Slow Fast Quick
    Octane 88 73.57% 69.98% 95.38%
    Octane 92 80.18% 77.48% 96.54%
    Octane 95 80.82% 78.21% 96.95%
  5. In the Highway
  6. Slow Fast Quick
    Octane 88 65.31% 60.60% 93.94%
    Octane 92 73.98% 70.45% 96.46%
    Octane 95 74.82% 71.40% 95.60%

The calculation shows that Indonesians could save at least 70% of their daily operational cost if they’re using LEAF. From here we also know that the Quick Charge could give the cheapest cost among the three charging type, but don’t use it too much because the battery is not charge in full capacity.

So, buy a LEAF everyone??

Anton Hermansyah

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Takaful, an Introduction

February 3, 2009

Brief Explanation

Takaful means a scheme based on brotherhood, solidarity and mutual assistance which provides for mutual financial aid and assistance to the participants in case of need whereby the participants mutually agree to contribute for that purpose (Takaful Act 1984, article 2), for short it is an Islamic Insurance, which still bring sharia principles within which are the main differences with the conventional insurance. It’s been practiced for about 1400 years, historians believe that Muslim of Mecca and Medina has started a kind of mutual insurance, and it developed again with trade between Arabs and Asians which require a great time and length that increase the risk of robbery and loss.

The Lebaran Effects?

September 30, 2008

Ketupat, The Symbol of LebaranAt the half of the month (September), my friend, Fajar told me that Dow Jones and Han Seng Index are fall by more than 10%, and I asked him, “how about Indonesia?”. He answered “We can still relax at this time, it’s still stable”.

I asked him back “Why?”, “I have no idea”, He replied. I answered my own question (with joking) “Maybe there’s a Lebaran effect, so demands are increasing and hold the economics from falling down”. “Just maybe”, Fajar replied.

I look at the newspaper and everybody said “The Black Monday“, because Lehman Brothers was filed for bankruptcy.

I would have a review about the Index movement at this month, unfortunately I couldn’t get the closing price data until the end of the month (my data end at 19th of September), but I hope it’s enough to give a brief picture about the market at three countries (United States, Hong Kong and Indonesia)