Archive for the ‘Economics’ Category

Indonesian Car Market, Days before Pressure

April 26, 2010

Save as much as you can before the rainy day

Honda FCX Clarity one of the brand new hybrid carsThat might be a match sentence for Indonesian Automaker. Forget about the recall crisis, Indonesian car market is not affected by that and (possibly) not sensitive enough with the recall issues, but the distributors need to boost sales as much as they can. Why so? Because the hard days are yet to come.

The causes are:

  1. Progressive Tax Plan
  2. The progressive tax means higher tax will applied for the second car. If the owner buy his second car, the car will have higher tax than the first one, if he buy the third, it has higher tax than the second one and so forth. Conclusion is to prohibit Indonesian to have multiple cars. Good news for crowded Jakarta street, bad news for Automaker. It’s still on debate to be applied in Jakarta, which is the biggest market for automobile in Indonesia.

  3. No Subsidized Gas for New Car
  4. Most (maybe ‘nearly all’) car in Indonesia used the subsidized Octane 88 gasoline. It’s a hidden feature of tax rebate I know, but Indonesia is not an oil land anymore (I will discuss about it more in the next post). Some policy plan has been discussed regarding this problem, and the last one is the car which produced in 2000 and thereafter are not allowed to consume the subsidized gas. It’s still on debate, but the latest news said that Pertamina, the one and only oil company allowed to sell the subsidized gas is booked Rp 456 billion (about US$ 45.6 Million) loss because of the gas. If the rule really applied, good news for Pertamina, bad news for Automaker, as the demand of the new car estimated to be decreased because of this.

  5. Increasing Steel Price
  6. The steel price is reported to be doubled from last year, because of steelmaker increasing operarional cost. This will create a pressure to the price of the new car as they need more pocket to buy the main ingredient. Okay they will charge more to the customer, but remember the demand is contradictionary to the price. Bad news for Automaker bad news for Consumer too.

The last one is slow but sure will make the car price more expensive, the first two? Still on the debate but when those two are really applied, the market will be totally changed. The Automaker must boost car sales as much as they can before running out of time.

Anton Hermansyah

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Simulation of Nissan LEAF Operational Cost in Indonesia

April 5, 2010

Nissan LEAFThe earth hero Nissan LEAF will come into production in 2011. I don’t know how much it cost but probably around $30,000 — $40,000. The issues of rising electricity price in Indonesia simply gives me idea to estimate the operational cost of Nissan LEAF here.

First, I look up for the charging specification of LEAF, there are three kind of charge ‘Slow’ which is the standard one, ‘Fast’ which halved the time with double amp, and ‘Quick’ which enables you to charge in less than one hour. In the full capacity, the Lithium Ion battery could run the LEAF for 160 km.

Type Amp Volt Time (Hour) Capacity Range (km)
Slow Charge 100 20 16 100% 160
Fast Charge 220 20 8 100% 160
Quick Charge 440 20 0.42 80% 128

Below is the table of Indonesian electricity cost,based on 2009 price.

Class VA Limit Charge Cost (Rp/kVA/Month) Usage Cost (Rp/kWh)
S-1/TR 220 VA 0 Subscription Cost/Month : 14,800
S-2/TR (1) 450 VA 10 Block I 0 – 30 kWh 123
Block II > 30 kWh – 60 kWh 265
Block III > 60 kWh 360
S-2/TR (2) 900 VA 15 Block I 0 – 20 kWh 200
Block II > 20 kWh – 60 kWh 295
Block III > 60 kWh 360
S-2/TR (3) 1,300 VA 25 Block I 0 -. 20 kWh 250
Block II > 20 kWh – 60 kWh 335
Block III > 60 kWh 405
S-2/TR (4) 2,200 VA 27 Block I 0 – 20 kWh 250
Block II > 20 kWh – 60 kWh 370
Block III > 60 kWh 420
S-2/TR (5) > 2,200 VA to 200 kVA 30.5 Block I 0 – 60 hours on 380
Block II > 60 hours on after 430
S-3/TM > 200 kVA 29.5 Block WBP KxPx325
Block LWBP Px325
R-1/TR (1) Up to 450 VA 11 Block I 0 – 30 kWh 169
Block II > 30 kWh – 60 kWh 360
Block III > 60 kWh 495
R-1/TR (2) 900 VA 20 Block I 0 – 20 kWh 275
Block II > 20 kWh – 60 kWh 445
Block III > 60 kWh 495
R-1/TR (3) 1,300 VA 30.1 Block I 0 – 20 kWh 385
Block II > 20 kWh – 60 kWh 445
Block III > 60 kWh 495
R-1/TR (4) 2,200 VA 30.2 Block I 0 – 20 kWh 390
Block II > 20 kWh – 60 kWh 445
Block III > 60 kWh 495
R-2/TR > 2,200 VA to 6,600 VA 30.4 560
R-3/TR > 6,600 VA 34.26 621

After look at the price of electricity, I match LEAF charging specification with the price. All of the charging types are under S-2 class, but only Slow charge under TR (4) and the rest are TR (5).

Type VA kWh Class Block
Slow Charge 2,000 32 S-2/TR (4) II
Fast Charge 4,400 35.2 S-2/TR (5) I
Quick Charge 8,800 3.67 S-2/TR (5) I

I calculate the total cost based on the charging type and it’s pricing category, then looking for the cost per km, which is the total cost divided by maximum range (see the first table).

Type Charge Cost Usage Cost Total Cost/km (Rp)
Slow Charge 54 11,840 11,894 74.34
Fast Charge 134.2 13,376 13,510.2 84.44
Quick Charge 268.4 1,393.33 1,661.73 12.98

Then I compare with the ordinary gasoline car. I chose Nissan Livina with HR15DE engine, because this car fall under same category based on the body size with LEAF. Assuming Octane 88 price : Rp 4,500/l; Octane 92 : Rp 6,000/l; Octane 95 : Rp 6,200/l

Type Fuel Cons. (km/l) Cost/km (Rp)
Octane 88 Octane 92 Octane 95
City 11 409.09 545.45 563.64
Combination 16 281.25 375 387.5
Highway 21 214.29 285.71 295.24

Then I calculate the percentage of how much Indonesians could save if they use LEAF instead of Livina.

  1. In the City
  2. Slow Fast Quick
    Octane 88 81.83% 79.36% 96.83%
    Octane 92 86.37% 84.52% 97.62%
    Octane 95 86.81% 85.02% 97.70%
  3. In the Combination Route
  4. Slow Fast Quick
    Octane 88 73.57% 69.98% 95.38%
    Octane 92 80.18% 77.48% 96.54%
    Octane 95 80.82% 78.21% 96.95%
  5. In the Highway
  6. Slow Fast Quick
    Octane 88 65.31% 60.60% 93.94%
    Octane 92 73.98% 70.45% 96.46%
    Octane 95 74.82% 71.40% 95.60%

The calculation shows that Indonesians could save at least 70% of their daily operational cost if they’re using LEAF. From here we also know that the Quick Charge could give the cheapest cost among the three charging type, but don’t use it too much because the battery is not charge in full capacity.

So, buy a LEAF everyone??

Anton Hermansyah

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A Tribute Car for The Managements

September 17, 2009

Lamborghini Gallardo LP 550-2You must have heard a lot of times about cars that specially made in order to tribute someone. The special cars are usually used to make a tribute to their legendary racer, just mentions SLR Stirling Moss (pays tribute to Sir Stirling Moss) and Subaru Imprezza RB320 (pays tribute to Richard Burns).

But this year two other tribute cars are launched to public, the difference from other tribute cars is the cars made to tribute the management person. They are not a legendary racer, not a celebrity too, the one is a great automobile maker CEO and the other one is a loyal employee of the automobile maker.

Takaful, an Introduction

February 3, 2009

Brief Explanation

Takaful means a scheme based on brotherhood, solidarity and mutual assistance which provides for mutual financial aid and assistance to the participants in case of need whereby the participants mutually agree to contribute for that purpose (Takaful Act 1984, article 2), for short it is an Islamic Insurance, which still bring sharia principles within which are the main differences with the conventional insurance. It’s been practiced for about 1400 years, historians believe that Muslim of Mecca and Medina has started a kind of mutual insurance, and it developed again with trade between Arabs and Asians which require a great time and length that increase the risk of robbery and loss.

Hybrid Car, Does It Still Far-Far Away from Indonesia?

December 1, 2008

Honda FCX Clarity one of the brand new hybrid carsThe next step of the automobile is the hybrid car, well I won’t talk about the specification or which hybrid you should use, but how long we should wait for a Prius, Insight or FCX park in our garage in Indonesia.

There some borders that Indonesian citizens have in order to have a hybrid car, mostly about the price and cost, and mostly it come from the government, here’s some that I got :

The Lebaran Effects?

September 30, 2008

Ketupat, The Symbol of LebaranAt the half of the month (September), my friend, Fajar told me that Dow Jones and Han Seng Index are fall by more than 10%, and I asked him, “how about Indonesia?”. He answered “We can still relax at this time, it’s still stable”.

I asked him back “Why?”, “I have no idea”, He replied. I answered my own question (with joking) “Maybe there’s a Lebaran effect, so demands are increasing and hold the economics from falling down”. “Just maybe”, Fajar replied.

I look at the newspaper and everybody said “The Black Monday“, because Lehman Brothers was filed for bankruptcy.

I would have a review about the Index movement at this month, unfortunately I couldn’t get the closing price data until the end of the month (my data end at 19th of September), but I hope it’s enough to give a brief picture about the market at three countries (United States, Hong Kong and Indonesia)

Joker's Game Theory in The Dark Knight

August 4, 2008

Joker in The Dark KnightIn The Dark Knight movie, there is a scene where Joker traps two ferries that carrying people out of Gotham. Each boat has different passengers :

  • Boat 1 = Contains the prisoners, several policemen and jail guardian
  • Boat 2 = Contains civilians, they are free and look more educated than most people at the first boat

Each of the boat has a bomb placed inside and the detonator to detonate the other bomb, so Boat 1 could detonate the bomb in Boat 2 and vice versa.

With time limit given, they have to choose between to detonate or not, and both of the boat can’t communicate to each other. Yes, this is could be a prisoner’s dilemma or game of chicken because they faced morality problem, they could be a murderer.

Gas is for Deep Pockets?

July 29, 2008

Gas StationI buy gas for my motorcycle every Tuesday and last time I went to the gas station, it shocked me with the price. I never felt the rapid increasing price like this. I usually buy a 92 octane gasoline (Premium Grade) and it has reached Rp. 10.600 per liter (about US$ 4.39 per gallon), last two weeks I bought it in Rp. 10.300 per liter (about US$ 4.26 per gallon). Six months ago I could bought it in price Rp. 8.600 per liter (about US$ 3.56 per gallon).

I could do some saving if I use the octane 88 (Regular Grade) one which price is Rp. 6.000 per liter (about US$ 2.48 per gallon) instead of the 92 octane one. Well all I can say is it just a matter of habit. When you usually fill up your tank with a higher octane there are a lot of consideration if you want to downgrade your gas.

But I’m not all alone, other countries has the same condition with me in Indonesia. For example :


Problems Within Indonesian Insurance Company

July 16, 2008

Still related with my previous post about insurance, if I had talked about the threats that insurance companies must face, now I’m going to talk about the insurance companies itself.

There are several problems that Indonesian Insurance Company have, those are :

Over Supply
The insurance market in Indonesia actually is not as big as expected. So there is an oversupply in the market. There are 40 life insurance companies and 92 common insurance companies in Indonesia, but none of them have significant market share, even with the market leader. AIG Life (life insurance) only have 13.76% and Jasindo (common insurance) only have 13.3% (2005 data).

Indonesia's Insurance Threats

July 14, 2008

Indonesia is a potential market for insurance, since It has billions of people and relative high growing economics. But why the insurance doesn’t grow as it expected.

I browse to the net, follow the lecturing, done some discussions with my friends, and here are the reasons that I got :

Religion and Belief
Indonesian society has strong belief and religion, they believe if the disaster get on them, it’s because of their failure or disobeying the God, if you get insured means that you don’t believe on God’s protection, and it’s a taboo to talk about disaster (it would be difficult to explain the insurance to them)
They felt they have educated enough about insurance, and all they know in generally is : “If I don’t have a trouble, I don’t get the money. My life is almost trouble free, why should I get insured? It’s just wasting my money!”
Financial Perspective
Prior to previous reason, they haven’t realize insurance as an investment, “If you want to invest, why don’t you buy a house, land or jewelry?” Those still a good investment methods, but not liquid enough.
Financial Condition
It’s all about the ability and the stability. We must have the ability to buy the policy and stabilty to pay the premiums consistently. I’m not sure about the number, but I think many Indonesians don’t have either the ability, stability or both. As long as I see, the insurance buyers in Indonesia are from the middle up economic level and forth, in fact there are many Indonesian people living below the poverty line.

Anton Hermansyah

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