The Lebaran Effects?

Ketupat, The Symbol of LebaranAt the half of the month (September), my friend, Fajar told me that Dow Jones and Han Seng Index are fall by more than 10%, and I asked him, “how about Indonesia?”. He answered “We can still relax at this time, it’s still stable”.

I asked him back “Why?”, “I have no idea”, He replied. I answered my own question (with joking) “Maybe there’s a Lebaran effect, so demands are increasing and hold the economics from falling down”. “Just maybe”, Fajar replied.

I look at the newspaper and everybody said “The Black Monday“, because Lehman Brothers was filed for bankruptcy.

I would have a review about the Index movement at this month, unfortunately I couldn’t get the closing price data until the end of the month (my data end at 19th of September), but I hope it’s enough to give a brief picture about the market at three countries (United States, Hong Kong and Indonesia)

There are three indexes to compare :

  • JCI (Jakarta Composite Index) represents the condition of stock market in Indonesia
  • Han Seng Index represents the condition of stock market in Hong Kong
  • DJ Comp (Dow Jones Composite) represents the condition of stock market in USA

The Closing Price Data Table

Closing Price
Date JCI Han Seng DJ Comp
09/01/08 2,164.62 20,906.3 4,162.03
09/02/08 2,195.05 21,042.5 4,139.25
09/03/08 2,116.00 20,585.1 4,121.77
09/04/08 2,075.23 20,389.5 4,015.82
09/05/08 2,022.56 19,933.3 3,999.39
09/08/08 2,038.00 20,794.3 4,085.18
09/09/08 1,958.75 20,491.1 3,960.53
09/10/08 1,885.04 19,999.8 4,012.20
09/11/08 1,870.13 19,388.7 4,094.76
09/12/08 1,804.06 19,352.9 4,101.70
09/15/08 1,719.25 19,352.9 3,960.61
09/16/08 1,735.64 18,300.6 4,008.23
09/17/08 1,769.89 17,637.2 3,843.83
09/18/08 1,787.67 17,632.5 3,989.07
09/19/08 1,891.73 19,327.7 4,090.20

The blue character means there’s no trade at the day, so I use the closing price from day before
The data at 15th of September are marked with bold character, that’s the day when Lehman Brothers commit bankruptcy (The Black Monday)

The Graphic

Closing Price

There’s not much fluctuations from the graphic except the Han Seng Index if we look from the closing price only. So I made the Indexed data to know the percentage of fluctuation.

The indexed Closing Price

Closing Price Indexed Per 1 September
Date JCI Han Seng DJ Comp
09/01/08 1 1 1
09/02/08 1 1.01 0.99
09/03/08 0.98 0.98 0.99
09/04/08 0.96 0.98 0.96
09/05/08 0.93 0.95 0.96
09/08/08 0.94 0.99 0.98
09/09/08 0.9 0.98 0.95
09/10/08 0.87 0.96 0.96
09/11/08 0.86 0.93 0.98
09/12/08 0.83 0.93 0.99
09/15/08 0.79 0.93 0.95
09/16/08 0.8 0.88 0.96
09/17/08 0.82 0.84 0.92
09/18/08 0.83 0.84 0.96
09/19/08 0.87 0.92 0.98

The Graphic

Closing Price Indexed
From the indexed data we know that the most fluctuated index in September is the JCI , I was shocked when I look at the graphic, this means that Indonesia’s Market is very volatile and still dependable to US market, even until the third half of September, the index still far from the beginning level, hope we have the better condition at the end of September.


Anton Hermansyah

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